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First TD Dashboard · Thursday Night Football
Patriots vs Bears:Who Will Score the First TD?
FavoriteD'Andre Swift
+425
- Chicago has a 50% chance to score the first TD. New England has 50%.
- When Chicago gets the ball first, it scores the first TD 59% of the time (10 of 17 games).
- D'Andre Swift has scored 3 of Chicago's last 13 first TDs. That is the most on the team.
+750
- He has not scored New England's first TD in the last 25 games.
- He gets 14% of New England's passes in the last 10 games.
- Chicago gives up 55% of its first TDs to running backs.
+2000
- He has scored 4 of New England's last 13 first TDs.
- He scored a TD in 5 of his last 24 games.
- Chicago gives up 45% of its first TDs to wide receivers.
Which team will score first?
- Step 1
Which team gets the ball first?
Chicago68%17 of 25 gamesNew England40%10 of 25 games - Step 2
When a team gets the ball first, does it score first?
Chicago59%10 of 17 gamesNew England60%6 of 10 gamesMost NFL teams do it 58% of the time.
- Step 3
Which team scores the first TD more in the last 25 games?
Chicago50%13 of 25 gamesNew England50%13 of 25 gamesOnly one team can score first, so we make the two numbers add up to 100%.
AnswerBoth teams are just as likely to score first.
Which position will score the first TD?
- Step 1
Which position scores first for each team?
Chicago
New England
Chicago also got one first TD from a linebacker. New England also got one first TD from a defensive back.
- Step 2
Which position scores first AGAINST each defense?
Against New England's defense
Against Chicago's defense
Counting all TDs in the last 10 games, not just the first: New England gives up the most to wide receivers (53%), and Chicago gives up the most to wide receivers (41%).
AnswerAgainst New England, look at wide receivers. Against Chicago, look at running backs. Chicago also scores first with a running back a lot. New England also scores first with a wide receiver a lot.
Which players have scored the first TD before?
When these teams played
Each team scored first in 1 of the last 2 games between them.
- 2022 Week 7Justin Fields QBChicago
- 2024 Week 10Ja'Lynn Polk WRNew England
Both of these players have left the team they scored for.
New England Last 25 games
DeMario Douglas has 4 of New England's 13 first TDs. That is the most on the team.
Chicago Last 25 games
D'Andre Swift has 3 of Chicago's 13 first TDs. That is the most on the team.
Still on the teamLeft the team
Who is most likely to score the first TD?
Chicago
| Player | Historical | Odds | Implied Prob. | Diff. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D'Andre Swift RB | 12% | +425 | 19% | -8 |
| Colston Loveland TE | 4% | +1100 | 8% | -4 |
| Luther Burden III WR | 4% | +1100 | 8% | -4 |
| Rome Odunze WR | 4% | +1100 | 8% | -4 |
| Roschon Johnson RB | 0% | +1400 | 7% | -7 |
| Caleb Williams QB | 8% | +1900 | 5% | +3 |
New England
| Player | Historical | Odds | Implied Prob. | Diff. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rhamondre Stevenson RB | 0% | +750 | 12% | -12 |
| A.J. Brown WR | 0% | +1100 | 8% | -8 |
| Hunter Henry TE | 4% | +1600 | 6% | -2 |
| DeMario Douglas WR | 15% | +2000 | 5% | +11 |
| TreVeyon Henderson RB | 8% | +2000 | 5% | +3 |
| Drake Maye QB | 4% | +2200 | 4% | -1 |
AnswerD'Andre Swift is the favorite. His Implied Prob. (19%) is higher than his Historical (12%). DeMario Douglas has the best Diff.: Historical 15%, Implied Prob. 5%.
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