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First TD Dashboard · Thursday Night Football
Bucs vs Cowboys:Who Will Score the First TD?
FavoriteJavonte Williams
+320
- Dallas has a 52% chance to score the first TD. Tampa Bay has 48%.
- When Dallas gets the ball first, it scores the first TD 64% of the time (9 of 14 games).
- Javonte Williams has scored 4 of Dallas's last 13 first TDs. That is the most on the team.
+600
- He has scored 3 of Dallas's last 13 first TDs.
- Dallas throws to him more than anyone: 26% of passes in the last 10 games.
- Tampa Bay gives up 62% of its first TDs to wide receivers.
+1500
- He has scored 1 of Dallas's last 13 first TDs.
- He scored a TD in 4 of his last 22 games.
- Tampa Bay gives up 62% of its first TDs to wide receivers.
Which team will score first?
- Step 1
Which team gets the ball first?
Dallas56%14 of 25 gamesTampa Bay52%13 of 25 gamesA coin flip decides this, so it is close to 50/50.
- Step 2
When a team gets the ball first, does it score first?
Dallas64%9 of 14 gamesTampa Bay54%7 of 13 gamesMost NFL teams do it 58% of the time.
- Step 3
Which team scores the first TD more in the last 25 games?
Dallas52%13 of 25 gamesTampa Bay48%12 of 25 games
AnswerDallas is a little more likely to score first. It gets the ball first more often, and it does more with it.
Which position will score the first TD?
- Step 1
Which position scores first for each team?
Dallas
Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay also got one first TD from a linebacker and one from a lineman.
- Step 2
Which position scores first AGAINST each defense?
Against Tampa Bay's defense
Against Dallas's defense
Counting all TDs in the last 10 games, not just the first: Tampa Bay gives up the most to tight ends (45%), and Dallas gives up the most to running backs (40%).
AnswerLook at wide receivers. Both defenses give up the most first TDs to them. Dallas also scores first with a running back a lot.
Which players have scored the first TD before?
When these teams played
Dallas scored first in 2 of the last 3 games between them. The last one was Jalen Tolbert in 2024.
- 2022 Week 1Mike Evans WRTampa Bay
- 2022 Wild CardDalton Schultz TEDallas
- 2024 Week 16Jalen Tolbert WRDallas
All three of these players have left the team they scored for.
Tampa Bay Last 25 games
Emeka Egbuka has 2 of Tampa Bay's 12 first TDs. No one on the team has more than that, so it is spread out.
Dallas Last 25 games
Javonte Williams has 4 of Dallas's 13 first TDs. That is the most on the team.
Still on the teamLeft the team
Who is most likely to score the first TD?
Dallas
| Player | Historical | Odds | Implied Prob. | Diff. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Javonte WilliamsRB | 16% | +320 | 24% | -8 |
| CeeDee LambWR | 12% | +600 | 14% | -2 |
| George PickensWR | 0% | +800 | 11% | -11 |
| Jake FergusonTE | 8% | +1200 | 8% | 0 |
| Ryan FlournoyWR | 4% | +1500 | 6% | -2 |
| Dak PrescottQB | 0% | +2500 | 4% | -4 |
Tampa Bay
| Player | Historical | Odds | Implied Prob. | Diff. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bucky IrvingRB | 0% | +1000 | 9% | -9 |
| Jalon DanielsQB | 0% | +1800 | 5% | -5 |
| Emeka EgbukaWR | 8% | +1900 | 5% | +3 |
| Sean TuckerRB | 4% | +2200 | 4% | 0 |
| Cade OttonTE | 4% | +3000 | 3% | +1 |
| Chris Godwin Jr.WR | 4% | +3000 | 3% | +1 |
AnswerJavonte Williams is the favorite. His Implied Prob. (24%) is higher than his Historical (16%). Emeka Egbuka has the best Diff.: Historical 8%, Implied Prob. 5%.
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